risedownlabs / polymarket-weather-bot

What is polymarket-weather-bot?

This is a TypeScript trading bot that bets on weather outcomes listed on Polymarket. It pulls forecast data from Open-Meteo (ECMWF, HRRR/GFS models) and live airport weather stations (METAR), then compares those predictions against Polymarket market prices to find positive expected value trades. The bot uses fractional Kelly criterion to size positions, runs a paper mode by default to test signals before risking real capital, and can switch to live trading via Polymarket's CLOB API when you provide wallet credentials. It tracks all trades and market outcomes locally in JSON files, building a calibration history over time.

Why is it gaining traction?

The core hook is that it automates the tedious parts of prediction market trading: scanning multiple cities, fetching forecasts, calculating edge, and managing positions. Rather than manually checking weather models against Polymarket prices every few hours, you point it at your wallet and let it run. The separation between paper and live modes means you can validate the strategy with fake balances before wiring up real Polygon funds. It also handles the gritty details like stop-losses, trailing breakeven moves, and spread filters so you are not getting fleeced on wide markets.

Who should use this?

Traders interested in Polymarket temperature markets who want to systematize their research and execution. Quantitatively inclined developers who already run trading scripts and want a ready-made framework with forecast ingestion, EV gating, and position management. Anyone who has manually traded weather markets on Polymarket and is tired of the manual overhead. Not for casual observers or anyone without at least basic familiarity with Polymarket's CLOB and Polygon wallet setup.

Verdict

The credibility score of 0.699999988079071% signals this is a small, unproven project with 47 stars and limited community visibility. The documentation is adequate but the code has no visible test suite, and the profit proof video links to a different repository entirely, which raises questions about whose results you are seeing. If you want a starting point for weather-based Polymarket trading, the architecture is sound and the paper mode is useful for validation. Just do not deploy live capital without significant personal testing, and expect to read and extend the code yourself rather than rely on polished tooling or support channels.