hydra-node

hydra-node / polymarket-weather-bot

Public

Polymarket weather trading bot Polymarket weather betting bot Polymarket weather trading bot Polymarket weather betting bot Polymarket weather trading bot Polymarket weather betting bot Polymarket weather trading bot Polymarket weather betting bot Polymarket weather trading bot Polymarket weather betting bot Polymarket weather trading bot

bot nodejs polymarket prediction-markets trading-bot
35
153
85% credibility
Found May 28, 2026 at 35 stars -- GitGems finds repos before they trend. Get early access to the next one.
Sign Up Free
AI Analysis
TypeScript
AI Summary

WeatherBet is a trading bot that turns weather forecast data into smart bets on Polymarket's temperature prediction markets. It pulls in multiple professional weather models (ECMWF and GFS), compares them against what the market is pricing, uses mathematical formulas to determine bet sizes, and can trade automatically in either practice mode or with real funds on the Polygon blockchain. Users start in paper trading mode by default, can monitor performance with simple commands, and the system learns from past trades to improve its accuracy estimates over time.

How It Works

1
🔍 You hear about a smarter way to play weather prediction markets

You learn that while most people guess on Polymarket temperature markets, this tool uses professional weather forecasts to find an edge.

2
⚙️ You install the program and connect it to your computer

The setup is straightforward — you download the files and run a simple install command, then enter a few basic choices like your starting balance.

3
🎮 You start in practice mode — no real money yet

Everything runs with pretend money at first, so you can watch how the system works and learn whether the weather forecasts are actually helpful.

4
📊 Watch your bot analyze forecasts and decide whether to bet

The program checks multiple weather models, calculates how likely each temperature range is, and only places a bet when the math shows genuine edge over the market price.

5
You're ready to decide: keep practicing or use real money?
📝
Stay in paper mode

Keep learning with simulated balance, refining your understanding before risking anything.

💰
Connect real funds

Link your Polymarket account and start trading with actual USDC, watching real gains or losses unfold.

6
📱 Check your results anytime with one command

You can see your current balance, open positions, win/loss record, and detailed breakdown of how each trade went whenever you want.

🎯 You've built a trading system that learns from its own history

The bot remembers every past trade, adjusts its confidence based on how accurate its weather forecasts were, and grows smarter over time.

Sign up to see the full architecture

5 more

Sign Up Free

Star Growth

See how this repo grew from 35 to 35 stars Sign Up Free
Repurpose This Repo

Repurpose is a Pro feature

Generate ready-to-use prompts for X threads, LinkedIn posts, blog posts, YouTube scripts, and more -- with full repo context baked in.

Unlock Repurpose
AI-Generated Review

What is polymarket-weather-bot?

A TypeScript bot that trades Polymarket temperature prediction markets using real weather forecast data. It pulls ECMWF and HRRR/GFS model outputs from Open-Meteo, compares them against market prices, and automatically places bets when the models show edge. Position sizing uses fractional Kelly criterion, and the bot starts in paper trading mode before you risk real USDC on the CLOB. It covers 20 cities globally, from New York to Tokyo, resolving markets against official airport METAR stations.

Why is it gaining traction?

The core insight is simple: retail traders price weather markets on gut feel, while professional models exist and are free. This bot bridges that gap. The self-calibration feature is particularly interesting—it learns from past predictions and adjusts forecast uncertainty per city and model source. The paper-first workflow means you can validate the strategy before touching real funds. The stop-loss and trailing breakeven logic handles risk management automatically, which is rare in open-source trading bots.

Who should use this?

Developers interested in prediction market arbitrage and algorithmic trading. If you want to experiment with weather-based trading strategies without building the data pipeline from scratch, this saves weeks of work. Researchers studying prediction market efficiency will find the calibration and reporting features useful for tracking model accuracy. Not suitable for production trading without significant testing—the 35 stars and lack of visible test coverage suggest it's still early-stage.

Verdict

A solid proof-of-concept for weather arbitrage on Polymarket, but treat it as a starting point, not a production system. The credibility score of 0.85% reflects the project's low maturity—paper trade extensively before considering live capital. The TypeScript codebase is well-structured and the documentation is clear, which helps with understanding and modification.

Sign up to read the full AI review Sign Up Free

Similar repos coming soon.