FiloSottile

FiloSottile / ecc-vs-lattices-long-bet

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A long bet between Matthew Green and Filippo Valsorda on what will break first: ML-KEM-768 or X25519. You can join! Money goes to charity.

16
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100% credibility
Found Apr 11, 2026 at 16 stars -- GitGems finds repos before they trend. Get early access to the next one.
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AI Analysis
AI Summary

A public charitable wager between prominent cryptographers on the relative security of lattice-based and elliptic curve cryptography primitives until 2040, open for others to back with pledges.

How It Works

1
👀 Discover the bet

You hear about a friendly wager between two cryptography experts predicting which security method will crack first by 2040.

2
📖 Read the rules

You visit the page and learn the simple terms, stakes that go to charity, and how others are joining.

3
💭 Pick your side

You think about it and choose to back either the quantum computers team or the math puzzle team.

4
✍️ Make your pledge

You write down your name, how much you're willing to donate if wrong, and which side you're on.

5
📤 Share your bet

You add your pledge to the public list so everyone can see you're in on the fun.

🎉 Join the watch party

Now you're part of raising money for charity while waiting to see who wins in 2040!

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Star Growth

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AI-Generated Review

What is ecc-vs-lattices-long-bet?

This GitHub repo hosts a high-stakes long bet between cryptographers Matthew Green and Filippo Valsorda on what breaks first by 2040: the lattice-based ML-KEM-768 post-quantum scheme or the elliptic curve X25519. Backers like David Adrian have joined with their own stakes via pull requests, all settled by charitable donations—no cash changes hands personally. It's pure Markdown documentation defining precise break conditions, arbiters, and exclusions, letting crypto devs put money where their long bet predictions are.

Why is it gaining traction?

Unlike dry academic papers or long term storage debates on GitHub long lived branches, this turns crypto forecasts into an interactive wager with real dollars for charity, drawing eyes from X25519 and ML-KEM fans debating quantum threats versus lattice attacks. The hook is submitting a PR to back a side, echoing fun long bets traditions while sidestepping GitHub long path error hassles—simple, public, and tied to FIPS 203 standards. Early backers signal confidence in one primitive over the other.

Who should use this?

Crypto protocol designers weighing hybrid key exchanges like X25519MLKEM768 hybrids should check it for security timelines. Post-quantum migration teams or security researchers making long bet predictions on NIST curves versus lattices will find the definitions useful for risk modeling. Devs into github long commit message style for precise specs might fork to run their own bets.

Verdict

Skip for production code—it's just a Markdown bet doc with 16 stars and 1.0% credibility score, no tests or runtime components. Still, worth a quick read for crypto devs tracking long beth timelines; join via PR if you're bullish on ECC holding longer than lattices.

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